Arctic Ice Project has made the difficult decision to conclude our research and begin the process of winding down operations.Learn more about our recent scientific findings and what this means for our future.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE, Redwood City, CA — Arctic Ice Project is pleased to announce the publication of a paper in Earth’s Future on March 12, 2025, addressing claims made by Drs. Melinda Webster and Stephen Warren in their 2022 AGU paper, that was further referenced in your publication. Webster and Warren’s analysis suggested that the use of Hollow Glass Microspheres (HGMs), or “tiny glass bubbles,” could potentially warm the Arctic. To the contrary, however, the research published in our commentary supports the hypothesis that HGMs can significantly enhance the reflectivity of sea ice, potentially cooling the region and delaying ice melt.
Addressing Criticism with Scientific Evidence
Arctic Ice Project (AIP) is a non-profit research organization dedicated to studying the climate impacts of Surface Albedo Modification (SAM) and developing safe, effective methods to enhance Arctic sea ice albedo. In their 2022 publication, Webster and Warren claimed that AIP’s proposed use of HGMs for SAM could result in warming rather than cooling the Arctic. This conclusion was based on significantly overestimated absorption coefficients of HGMs derived from early laboratory measurements. They further concluded that “for melting sea ice with no snow cover, and for refrozen melt ponds, spreading HGMs onto their surfaces causes a negligible [amount of cooling].” In essence, their argument posited that HGMs would darken most Arctic ice, accelerating melting.
However, these conclusions conflict with the experimental results of multiple field tests and studies, which consistently demonstrate that applying HGMs to pond ice increases albedo and delays ice melt. Moreover, when accurate measurements are applied, the modeling approach utilized by Webster and Warren suggests that HGMs could brighten the Arctic, extend the life of sea ice, and potentially contribute to regional cooling.
The Urgency of Arctic Climate Solutions
Addressing climate change requires scientific integrity and a commitment to transparency. Effective solutions must be grounded in rigorous, peer-reviewed research, ensuring that proposed interventions are both viable and safe. The dissemination of reliable scientific information is essential for informing public discourse, guiding policy decisions, and advancing responsible climate interventions. Surface Albedo Modification (SAM) has been explored as a potential means to slow Arctic ice loss, yet its feasibility, risks, and benefits require ongoing, meticulous study to ensure it remains a scientifically sound approach.
For over a decade, Arctic Ice Project has been at the forefront of research into Arctic ice preservation. Our climate impact simulations have demonstrated promising results—with new scientific papers forthcoming—yet laboratory tests indicate that further investigation is necessary to reach definitive conclusions. As the urgency of climate change intensifies, ensuring that accurate, high-quality scientific data remains accessible is more crucial than ever.
Continuing the Legacy of Scientific Discovery
While Arctic Ice Project will not undertake new research moving forward, as a nonprofit, our responsibility has always been to maximize the public benefit of our research. We remain committed to ensuring that our findings contribute to the broader scientific community and inform future climate intervention strategies. The need for innovative approaches to protect and restore Arctic sea ice remains as urgent as ever.
We intend for our work to serve as a foundation for future scientific breakthroughs, inspiring new research and collaborative efforts to combat climate change. By making our research widely available, we aim to empower other scientists, policymakers, and organizations to build upon our efforts, advancing critical solutions to preserve the Arctic and stabilize the global climate.
For more information, please contact mediarelations@arcticiceproject.org. or www.arcticiceproject.org.
Reflecting on Our Scientific Journey and Next Steps
It is with heavy hearts that we share the news that Arctic Ice Project will be concluding its research and winding down the organization.
More than a decade ago, we started with the innovative idea of using a reflective material to protect and restore Arctic sea ice—the planet’s natural heat shield and a critical factor in combating climate change. What began as a grassroots effort grew into one of the most highly studied global initiatives to slow the rate of climate change through surface albedo modification.
From the outset, we committed to advancing our work only if we could conclusively demonstrate both the safety and effectiveness of our approach. While our climate impact simulations have shown promising results—with a new scientific paper forthcoming—laboratory ecotoxicological tests indicate that further study is needed to reach definitive conclusions, extending our research timeline.
Initially, we intended to continue this work, but after careful reflection, the Board determined that securing the necessary global resources, collaborations, and funding remains a significant challenge—further strained by an increasingly difficult funding landscape and the growing scarcity of federal research dollars. These financial barriers are compounded by broad skepticism toward geoengineering and resistance to introducing new materials into the Arctic Ocean. Given these realities, the most viable path forward was to conclude our research.
As stewards of this important work, we are focused on maximizing its impact even as we wind down and committed to sharing our findings widely so that others can build upon our efforts. Over the coming months we will:
—Document potential alternative materials
—Publish the results of the Beaufort Gyre climate modeling
—Release a capstone scientific paper that integrates our complete dataset and findings
—Make all of our research freely available on our website to be sure it continues to benefit the global climate science community
As a nonprofit, our responsibility is to maximize the public benefits of our work, and this will include active cooperation with other researchers to leverage our findings and support continued innovation in the climate science field. We will distribute any remaining assets to other climate research organizations to further the fight against climate change to ensure that our research yields future benefits to people and the planet.
We always knew that Arctic Ice Project was an ambitious “moonshot,” but that does not make concluding our work any less bittersweet. This brings us back to you—our companions on this journey. Along with our generous donors, we are profoundly grateful to the many talented and committed volunteers who have served as members of our Scientific Advisory Board and Arctic Research Development Committee over the years. Their immense knowledge, intellect, and energy strengthened our small but mighty team and were instrumental in propelling our efforts forward.
We are incredibly proud of what we’ve achieved together. The unwavering interest, encouragement, and financial support of our community made this journey possible, and your shared dedication to protecting future generations inspired us every step of the way. We are truly grateful to have walked this road with you.
While this chapter is ending, we look forward to new paths to forge in our shared mission to protect our planet. Hopefully, you will as well.
In order to prevent Earth’s delicately-balanced climate system from falling further into disequilibrium, we need to slow down climate warming in the Arctic and prevent the disappearance of sea ice.
At Arctic Ice Project, we’re developing an approach that uses thin coatings of reflective material to enhance the reflectivity of sea ice, which reduces the amount of heat absorbed by the ocean and cools the Arctic. Our work so far has centered around using tiny hollow spheres made of silica– the same compound that makes up the majority of Earth’s sand– to preserve sea ice. The results of preliminary field tests show that our approach can significantly slow down ice melting, and we’re excited to scale up towards larger field tests in the Arctic in the coming years.
However, it’s critical that we answer essential questions about safety and effectiveness before we start employing sea ice reflectivity enhancement in the Arctic. No proposed methods of climate intervention have progressed beyond the research phase thus far– along with the rest of the climate intervention community, we’re committed to making sure that these potentially life-saving methods aren’t rushed or utilized in an irresponsible way. That’s why a major part of our research program focuses on understanding the impact of residual reflective coatings on the health of the marine ecosystem. This research involves long-term testing with a variety of marine species ranging from zooplankton to fish at the top of the food chain– which requires time and substantial funding.
The support we receive from our donors is absolutely essential to our ability to develop a method of climate intervention that has a strong cooling impact on the Arctic without damaging its delicate ecosystem. Every dollar we raise enables us to advance our research, and every bit of research brings us closer to developing a safe and effective method of sea ice reflectivity enhancement that can help shape a brighter future for our planet.
This past week, Technical Director Stephanie Olinger and I ventured north (far north!) for this year’s Arctic Circle Assembly.
Surrounded by the breathtaking landscapes of Iceland—where glaciers, volcanoes, and the Northern Lights converge—the Arctic Circle Assembly provided an equally striking backdrop for a meeting of minds from across the globe.
Iceland itself sits at the intersection of the North American and Eurasian tectonic plates, symbolizing the convergence of different ideas, cultures, and responsibilities that took place over the course of the Assembly. Just as the land beneath Iceland shifts and adapts, so too do the global perspectives on the urgent issues we face, particularly in the Arctic, where climate change has profound implications for the future of the planet.
What stood out during these three days was the convergence of people from different parts of the world with differing agendas, all in one place. Whether representing governments, ministries, educational institutions or indigenous communities, the assembly brought these voices together in a way that is rare in the global arena. Few places offer such open, democratic dialogue, where leaders answer unscripted questions and engage in authentic discussions. This diversity of voices was key to creating a space where accountability is fostered, not just by formal structures, but by the participants themselves.
Accountability in Action
A major theme of the conference was accountability—a challenge in today’s world where many leaders and institutions evade scrutiny. The Arctic Circle Assembly created a forum where those in positions of responsibility are not only heard but are held accountable. This gathering forces participants to reckon with the reality of their responsibilities, bringing those lessons back to their own capitals, organizations, and communities.
Indigenous Voices at the Forefront
The demand for indigenous communities to be heard was one of the most powerful takeaways from this year’s assembly. The inclusion of young indigenous leaders, who voiced their concerns more actively than ever before, highlighted the increasing role they play in shaping the future. Their contributions were not just symbolic but integral to the discussions on climate change, ocean utilization, and geopolitical challenges.
Relevance to the Arctic Ice Project
For Arctic Ice Project, the discussions and themes that emerged at the Assembly are directly aligned with the organization’s mission to mitigate climate change through innovative, science-based solutions. As an organization that focuses on preserving Arctic ice—an essential component of the Earth’s climate system—the assembly’s focus on accountability and indigenous engagement underscores the importance of inclusivity in environmental decision-making.
The Arctic is a region that experiences climate change at a faster rate than any other part of the world, making the preservation of sea ice critical for regulating global temperatures. The Assembly provides an invaluable platform for Arctic Ice Project to engage with global leaders, indigenous communities, and other scientists, helping to ensure that diverse voices are included in the discussions on climate solutions. The demand for accountability and transparency at this forum echoes Arctic Ice Project’s commitment to transparency in its research and the development of its technology for sea ice preservation.
The engagement with young indigenous leaders at the assembly is particularly relevant. These communities are on the front lines of Arctic climate change, and their insights are vital for shaping adaptive solutions. By participating in this global forum, Arctic Ice Project is not only advancing scientific dialogue but also aligning its mission with the voices of those most affected by Arctic warming.
A Proven Model for Global Dialogue
Despite doubts from skeptics more than a decade ago, the Assembly has succeeded in bringing together a wide range of participants—including presidents, ministers, scientists, activists, and concerned citizens—in an open and cooperative dialogue. This year saw participation from countries beyond the Arctic, including China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Even with the absence of Russia, the diversity of voices continues to grow, proving that this platform is an important global venue for collaboration on shared challenges.
Looking Ahead
The success of this year’s assembly serves as a testament to the power of open, democratic engagement. For Arctic Ice Project, these conversations are not just about accountability but about building a shared vision for a more resilient planet. The importance of collaborative efforts in tackling climate change, particularly in the Arctic, cannot be overstated. As Arctic Ice Project continues its mission to preserve sea ice and mitigate global warming, the assembly provides a key space for advancing dialogue, transparency, and action on climate innovation.
In 2024, Arctic Ice Project was recognized in a significant new initiative led by Ocean Visions—a first-of-its-kind digital road map aimed at identifying and advancing potential pathways to slow the loss of Arctic sea ice. The inclusion of AIP in this comprehensive assessment underscores our role as a key contributor in the global effort to combat one of the most urgent indicators of climate change: the accelerated melting of Arctic summer sea ice.
“Given current and projected levels of greenhouse gas pollution, even in the best scenario of emissions reductions we risk levels of Arctic sea ice loss that will exacerbate changes in other parts of the Arctic, like permafrost, that could fuel even more warming,” said Ocean Visions Senior Program Officer Dr. Kerry Nickols. “This reality underscores the need to carefully and collaboratively investigate all potential options to slow further loss of Arctic sea ice while we continue to decarbonize.”
The Ocean Visions Road Map, published in collaboration with an international team of climate and earth science experts, provides a detailed assessment of 21 approaches to mitigate Arctic sea ice loss. These approaches range across five main categories: Arctic Protection, Pollution Management, Ice Management, Surface Albedo Modification, and Solar Radiation Modification. The road map is designed to catalyze research and investment into solutions that address knowledge gaps, assess potential risks, and explore the feasibility of various strategies to preserve Arctic sea ice.
Recognition and Alignment with Global Climate Goals
AIP’s involvement and inclusion in this initiative marks an important recognition of our expertise and dedication to innovative, science-based approaches to Arctic sea ice preservation. By contributing to the development of potential solutions, we have demonstrated our alignment with the goals of the UN Decade of Action for Cryospheric Sciences (2025-2034), which emphasizes the need for urgent action to protect and restore vulnerable cryospheric systems. The Road Map positions AIP alongside other leading research institutions and stakeholders, reinforcing our role in the international conversation around climate intervention.
Addressing Knowledge Gaps through Innovation
A key highlight of The Road Map is the emphasis on accelerated research and development of emerging technologies like surface albedo modification, a focus area for AIP. As The ROad Map outlines, the current pace of greenhouse gas emission reductions alone may not be sufficient to prevent the further loss of Arctic sea ice. This context creates a vital space for AIP’s work, particularly in developing technologies that enhance ice resilience and promote local cooling effects.
Our inclusion in the assessment helps address critical knowledge gaps related to the risks, impacts, and reversibility of such interventions. By exploring the potential of surface albedo modification and other innovative approaches, AIP is contributing valuable insights that can guide decision-making processes at the regional and global levels.
Supporting Collaborative and Inclusive Research
The Ocean Visions Road Map also emphasizes the importance of careful, collaborative research, especially in areas where knowledge is limited and governance considerations are crucial. AIP’s long-standing commitment to transparency, public engagement, and multi-stakeholder collaboration aligns seamlessly with this approach. Our role in The Road Map enables us to foster deeper partnerships with scientific, public, and policy communities—ensuring that our work is grounded in responsible research practices that prioritize justice and inclusivity.
A Platform for Future Growth and Collaboration
Being featured in The Ocean Visions Road Map offers strategic opportunities for AIP to expand our impact. The Road Map highlights the urgency of moving innovative approaches to demonstration scale within the next decade. As we continue to build on our research, this recognition opens doors for increased funding, collaboration with international experts, and deeper engagement with stakeholders who share our vision of a more resilient Arctic.
In a year marked by new challenges and new opportunities, our inclusion in this groundbreaking assessment by Ocean Visions reinforces AIPs standing as a leader in climate innovation. Together with our partners, we remain committed to advancing the knowledge, technology, and collaborative spirit needed to protect Arctic sea ice and safeguard the future of our global climate system.
Imagine navigating through the once-impenetrable icy wilderness of the Arctic, now transformed into a bustling maritime highway. As the planet warms, Arctic sea ice is quickly melting, creating shortcuts between continents that were once the stuff of legend. This is not the backdrop of a sci-fi or fantasy plot, but a stark reality unfolding today.
Current levels of ice melt have already created new shipping lanes and increased access to Arctic ports. As these passages and ports become poised to facilitate large-scale ship traffic — for all kinds of vessels, including cargo, naval, scientific, transport, and cruise ships — the planet will enter a new frontier of crisis.
How Continued Arctic Sea Ice Melt Could Change Current Shipping Routes
As global temperatures rise, Arctic sea ice is quickly diminishing — so quickly, that the Arctic could have ice-free summers by 2035. If this happens, it will create larger Arctic waterways that allow for shorter maritime shipping routes between oceans and continents, eliminating thousands of miles from trips that would ordinarily pass through the Panama or Suez canals. These waterways include the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP), also referred to as the Arctic Passage, which are likely to become widely used shipping lanes.
This trend may initially appear advantageous for global maritime navigation, as these emerging routes could offer lower transportation costs due to reduced transit times and fuel consumption, assuming that current safety and insurance-related obstacles could be overcome. However, the prospect of large-scale Arctic traffic also has far-reaching consequences likely to spell disaster in multiple already-fragile and volatile arenas, including national security.
Nations that can claim ownership of Arctic waterways will gain major advantages from controlling these passages in terms of matters like security, tourism, and scientific research.
Sources of Conflict
First, Article 234 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea states that coastal nations bordering the Arctic hold regulatory power over areas that are covered in ice for the majority of the year. The loss of this ice could legally complicate countries’ claims over and rights in parts of the Arctic Ocean, giving rise to territorial disputes and confusion around security protocols. In addition to creating or heightening international tensions, this could make it easier for criminals to use these waterways for illegal fishing or human and drug trafficking.
Second, the Arctic is increasingly an area of geopolitical competition between the bordering US, China, and Russia, the three most powerful nations in the world. Both China and Russia have serious long-standing (and currently heightening) political disputes with the US. Recently, China and Russia have been cooperating in various regards, a tentative alliance that is causing security concerns for Americans. This may lead to an increased military presence in the Arctic from all three nations, exacerbating pre-existing tensions to the point of armed conflict.
Accelerated Global Warming and Heightened Climate Crisis
Thanks to its historically large quantities of ice, the Arctic region provides a considerable portion of Earth’s overall albedo (ability to reflect sunlight and stabilize temperatures). As the Arctic sea ice cover melts, it uncovers dark, heat-absorbing water, effectively accelerating the current rate of global warming and worsening the effects of the ongoing climate crisis. Increased ship traffic in this region would bring with it greater localized greenhouse gas emissions and black carbon deposition on ice, which would cause Arctic ice to melt even more quickly.
Risk of oil spills. The potential for oil spills from ships transporting fossil fuels from or through the Arctic poses a severe threat to the region’s delicate ecosystems. In such a remote, dangerous, and otherwise logistically challenging environment, addressing oil spills is significantly more difficult than elsewhere, heightening the risk of unmitigated or poorly mitigated long-term environmental damage.
Habitat disturbance and noise pollution. The surge in shipping traffic would disrupt marine life, particularly noise-sensitive species like whales. The increased noise interferes with their communication, navigation, and feeding behaviors, leading to broader ecological imbalances.
Loss of ice necessary for species survival. The continued loss of sea ice, which is already occurring at an alarming rate and would be further hastened by localized carbon emissions from ships, would endanger not only global temperatures, but the region’s wildlife and ecosystems. Many species rely on the ice as a habitat and breeding grounds as well as for hunting. Whales, polar bears, seals, walruses, and many other species may become extinct or at risk of extinction.
Introduction of invasive species. Increased shipping traffic raises the likelihood of invasive species being transported into the Arctic waters, potentially disrupting local marine ecosystems and threatening native species’ survival.
Economic opportunities and challenges. While new shipping lanes may bring some economic opportunities to Arctic communities, they would also present challenges. This is likely to be the case if indigenous people and other locals aren’t treated respectfully or compensated fairly.
Access to resources and services. Improved shipping routes could enhance access to resources and services for remote Arctic communities, potentially improving living standards. However, this increased accessibility may also lead to over-exploitation of natural resources and increased foreign influence in the region.
Cultural heritage and preservation. The influx of global shipping activities and the resultant environmental changes could threaten the cultural heritage of indigenous people, disrupting traditional practices like fishing, hunting, and herding. The arrival and presence of non-natives could also result in the marginalization and loss of native languages.
Infrastructure and investment. The need for improved infrastructure to support increased shipping activity could drive investment in remote regions, but it also raises concerns about sustainable development and the environmental impact of construction in these fragile ecosystems. This is important because Arctic residents, too, depend on and are part of these ecosystems.
What You Can Do
You can help protect critical Arctic sea ice, the health of our climate, and Arctic wildlife from the hazards of increased shipping and other maritime traffic by doing the following:
Educating yourself and others about the realities of the current climate crisis and viable climate intervention strategies
Reducing your own use of fossil fuels, which are the biggest drivers of the climate crisis
Voting for legislation, leaders, and politicians committed to protecting the Arctic from exploitation and addressing the climate crisis
Supporting nonprofit organizations that work directly in the climate intervention sector
Protect Arctic Sea Ice With Arctic Ice Project
Arctic Ice Project’s efforts are crucial to the protection of Arctic sea ice. Our team is developing reflective materials and strategies to increase the albedo of this precious ice, mimicking natural processes to reflect solar energy out of our atmosphere and restore the Arctic.
You can do your part in this critical fight by donating to AIP. With your donation of cash, stocks, bonds, or your opening of a DAF, you can help ensure that Arctic sea life and humanity on our planet not only see a tomorrow, but see a brighter one. No donation is too small!
If you are not able to make a financial contribution, you can still share the message and inspire others to act through social media and by staying informed on climate projects. Contact us today for other ways to help!
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